I don't think that the models have had a good grasp on just how strong that H is north of Florida, which allowed Frances to hit near the Melbourne area, even though the models insisted (most of them anyway) that it would skirt the coast of Eastern Florida and make landfall near GA/SC. I remember that the models were all showing an over-rated weakness with that H, and I don't think it's moved much.
The other thing that worries me is how the SHIPS has consistently underdone the intensity of these storms. Charley, Frances...Ivan. Notice how the newest forecast track shows it as a Cat 2 at landfall at 11pm when it was at a Cat 1 at 5:00pm. The other problem we face is that even though the waters are still pretty warm around NC/SC, the waters are even warmer near Florida, especially in the Gulfstream. I still believe that Frances was a Cat3 (minimum) at landfall, but what was the point at changing it 45 minutes before landfall? I could be wrong. I do know this: Charley ballooned in a matter of hours and went from a Cat 2 to a strong Cat 4 almost 3 hours before landfall. Notice, I did say the models, not the NHC.
Time will tell.
Is it December 1st yet?