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Keith, the NHC and most models so far, have Jeanne moving NW or NNW for a time, not WNW then W. http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/WTNT41.KNHC That turn is due to Ivan maintaing a midlevel circulation over the S.E states, which is also forecast by the models. I stated 2 or more days ago that the models were indicating Ivan would be picked up by a trough in the east, and that has accounted for Quote:So yes, the models did pick up on this, and the GFS was the first one that did so. The first clue was that it picked up some speed on its approach to the coast. Anyone forecasting this needs to be careful about saying "Florida will be hit in 5 days". The scenario could unfold in a complex way that causes more than just 1 shift in movement. The wildcard in this is a strong trough moving across the west on Jeanne's approach, and the effect it has on the high pressure aloft off the coast. IF it pushes the high offshore, you could see the storm move NW or NNW, then W, or even WSW, then turn back towards the N. I am not willing to be a maverick for the sake of ego and say where this is going to hit (a shot at Accuweather). In general, I think the threat area is from Florida to Hatteras. |