What a difference a few hours makes. I go to bed feeling relatively ok about Jeanne's forecast track, and wake up to see it might be making landfall just north of me. Truth be told, growing up in Florida I never get complacent about these things no matter how far away they're forecast to be...lol.

Anyway, just a few quick observations as I haven't had too much time to check models, etc. Right now Jeanne looks to be pretty stationary over Hispaniola. She seems to have almost hit a wall and stopped all forward movement. Whether she can get unstuck isn't exactly a sure thing in my mind. Also, most of the models have had a hard time factoring strength and time/placement of the ridges and troughs into their extended forecasts. I realize that anything past 3 days has diminished accuracy, and one can see the problems the models had with Ivan with regard to the ridges and trough to its north. That's why the forecast track kept shifting further and further west. Obviously every storm is different, but I have noticed the difficulties with which the models have predicted the troughs and ridges and that seems to be a constant(remember Mr. Stewart even gave us some insight on that).