If Jeanne gets ripped apart, it will be steered by the lower level flow, but it seems like this year land doesn't matter as much. I think it was Gaston this year that actually started to reorganize while over Va.
Systems like this are the most difficult to forecast because their intensity is dependent on a track that isn't well-established yet, with weak steering currents, and sparse data. That's why I have been taking Accuweather to task. In the end, they may be right, but I just don't understand the need to be a hero. The line between hero in goat is a fine one. The way in my opinion, the Hatteras solution comes into play, is if we have an evolution similar to Isabel last year.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20030918.html
The link above shows the 500 mb pattern on Isabel's approach, and as per my post last night, yes, it is in a different location, but in both cases, there was troughing in the Plains moving eastward, and a high aloft offshore, and a strong surface high over N.E. In Jeanne's case, the hi offshore is actually at least partially onshore, but any shift eastward of this feature would allow Jeanne to threaten higher up on the coast. Not saying this will happen, but this is a scenario that has to be watched. Ironically, the longer Jeanne sits out there, I think the better the chances of that happening are, as eventually, that trof will reach the coast.
Hey, I'll take this one if it spares Fla.
Also, this is far from a perfect analog, so maybe I should just wait and see how it plays out. I am just thinking out loud.