My fIrst look at Jeanne, not to impressive on the GOES vis sat loop, not sure if I can even find the center on the last frame.... appeared to be an LLC just moving off the island to the north prior to the last frame but it kinda just dissapeared on the last loop,,, hmmmm... and this was in the specific location of the last NHC advisory position for the center... if so, all the convection is on the east side of the storm... the big island is playing havoc on the storm right now and if its going to survive it better get back to the water quick....

also think this system has a very good chance of another Florida landfall... the bermuda ridge will again be the factor for this scenario, the ridge has been the player of the year for sure, and I think will it do it again to Florida... stay tuned... I don't think Ivan will cause enough weakness in the ridge to cause Jeanne to go up the east coast...if she survives she will likely impact Florida....

I'm two for two on my Frances and Ivan long term forecasts of 10 days out and really nailed em good... .. . I'm long overdue for a healthy buffet of crow at any time, can't let LIPhil eat all the crow, I'm sure he's ready to eat some steak about now... at least crow is probably low fat and probably good for ya... I hope for Florida's sake that this time I'm the crow eater... not willing to forecast a GOM event yet... best guess on that is 50/50....way to early..

need to start doing a little model research to fine tune things...

on a side note: got some excellent recommendations and input on my request for information on generators, thanks to all for your assistance...

Frank P..