we've got one of the most complicated forecast situations i've ever seen with tropical cyclones developing in the western atlantic.
jeanne is stuck, clinging to the north coast of haiti, getting intense sw shear. all it's convection is away to the east, and the center is being drawn towards it.. also a low layer vortmax southwest of haiti is dragging it. that's just getting started.
ivan has swept northeastward more quickly than forecast, and it's future is also a point of confusion. its upper vorticity should get sucked out NE ahead of the sharp shortwave leading the strong reinforcing ridge, while the surface system should drag offshore, turn SW, and possibly redevelop. if it doesn't shear out, that is. the orientation of the ridge developing north of jeanne should become more peaked, and force the storm more westward, once the shortwave trough energy currently diving into the NE US interacts with the complex upper trough east of bermuda.. and this is the same upper system that should bring karl up east of jeanne.. which models variably show dragging jeanne away to the east, or not having significant influence and letting jeanne come west. add to that the cyclogenesis being indicated in the stewing feature in the SW caribbean, and we've got one whopper of a complicated forecasting situation.
here's my rundown:
ivan gets stripped offshore, then forced back SW as a weak system. jeanne meanders near the SE bahamas for a couple of days, begins coming west again, heads for the southeast while intensifying. potential invest in the western caribbean. karl is already showing tendency to recurve.. intensifies a great deal over the weekend and heads north out to sea on the upper trough. another invest appears on the wave in karls wake early next week.
if half of that pans out i'll be super-satisfied.. i'll feel good on even 25%.. this is one hell of chaotic forecasting problem.
have fun figuring this one out, cfhc.
HF 2246z17september