MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 17 2004 11:11 PM
New ETA is out

The new ETA is out to 72 hours, and is coming into better agreement with the GFS. It is shearing out the main part of Ivan, while leaving a little behind over the coastal waters but it does not deepen it like the last 2 runs. It also brings Jeanne up the east side of whatever is left, similar to the GFS.
Now that this agrees with the 18z GFS, I hope that doesn't change radically. Actually, if the GFS maintains continuity, a little more confidence in a forecast is possible. Either way, the ETA now doesn't threaten the US with much if anything, but of course, one's guard cannot be let down. I think these last few weeks have definitely taught us that.