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The new ETA is out to 72 hours, and is coming into better agreement with the GFS. It is shearing out the main part of Ivan, while leaving a little behind over the coastal waters but it does not deepen it like the last 2 runs. It also brings Jeanne up the east side of whatever is left, similar to the GFS. Now that this agrees with the 18z GFS, I hope that doesn't change radically. Actually, if the GFS maintains continuity, a little more confidence in a forecast is possible. Either way, the ETA now doesn't threaten the US with much if anything, but of course, one's guard cannot be let down. I think these last few weeks have definitely taught us that. |