| darthaggie |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:24 AM |
Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
|
Quote:
For the question about Joe B, he is what he is.
FWIW, his current thinking is that Jeanne comes N or NNW slowly for the next few days, stalls, gets forced back WSW and either crosses over or S of FL. He thinks (assuming survival) that it makes Cat 2ish status there. Ivan gets out south of Jersey and creates gales to its north as it comes back down the coast (watch for potential development if the center - still intact - gets out over water). Ultimately Ivan backs SW into the Central Gulf and changes the windflow patterns. Jeanne, meanwhile, makes her hit (or brushby) and then heads round about toward New Orleans ala Andrew, Betsy, & 1947. I don't think he expects Jeanne backing until 5-6 days out, so the threat is really after next weekend.
Huh? *boggle* What you've related makes zero (nada, zilch) sense to me.
Ivan's already caught up in the westerlies. When the dry air gets to him (go look at the water vapor imagery, you'll see what I mean), that will complete his conversion to an extratropical system. The door to Florida will be closed by the ridge that will build in behind Ivan's departure. Jeanne will either die in place, or lift out to the northeast, on Ivan's coat tails.