Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 18 2004 04:32 AM
Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????

I never said that they need to keep a consistency from shift to shift. My contention is that to keep making wild changes to the forecast when the models are as chaotic as they have been the last 12 hours does not really serve a useful purpose. I understand there are a lot of differing personalities and ideas. Some that I agree with and others that I don't. There are certain forecasters that I think are slow to change a forecast when warrented. Others seem to be willing to change if they even slightly disagree with it.

I, personally, do not think that wild changes do any good for public confidence in the forecast. Some people do not think that should be a worry of the forecasters. I am not one of those. I will grant that the change that was made was probably the only one that would have seemed reasonable to me. I still think it will not help confidence if the forecast resumes something similar to Friday morning.

It is really a nit pick more then anything.


PS. FWIW, I am not sure that Jeanne will even be a viable tropical entity this time tomorrow. That would pretty much render worrying about future forecast positions moot.



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