| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:31 PM |
Re: She's a fighter
|
Quote:
"000
WTNT41 KNHC 180901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE 00Z GFS BREAKS
OFF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF IVAN AND TAKES IT SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF
THE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS." Ivan?
Yeah, Ivan is the "King" to this "Pawn"(Jeanne) next move
Quote:
IN THIS SCENARIO...JEANNE IS
LIFTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THESE REMNANTS AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z NOGAPS
SCENARIO IS FOR IVAN'S MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO WEAKEN AND/OR TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING IN JEANNE GETTING TRAPPED MORE
QUICKLY UNDER THE STRONG HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN 3-5 DAYS.
and if you think this is going ot go away anytime soon:
Quote:
WHILE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD KEEP JEANNE UNDER UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THUS IT WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG SYSTEM COULD MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT...A NOT UNREASONABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE FORECAST BELOW WOULD BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL ENTER
TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE...AS DEBBY DID IN
THIS AREA FOUR YEARS AGO.