Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sun Sep 19 2004 05:24 PM
Re: Forecasting fun with Jeanne

It depends on how long Jeanne sits over that loop as well as how deep the warm waters are in that part of the ocean. A day or two won't make a huge difference, but longer than that will. A shallowewr depth of the warm waters would lead to a lesser amount of time before the storm begins to be negatively affected by upwelling of colder waters.

For an example of what can happen in the Gulf with a looping storm, see Roxanne of 1995. That storm hung around there for nearly a week, able to maintain itself for awhile but eventually weakened and moved into Mexico. The NHC preliminary report on the storm is available here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995roxanne.html



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