SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004

FINAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF THE EVENING HAS MOVED SOUTH THROUGH MOST
OF THE PENINSULA WITH NO OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

AT 00Z VORT MAX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN...IS MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 23 KNOTS OFF OF THE FLORIDA NE COAST NEAR 29.5N 77.5W.
EXTRAPOLATING THIS MOTION...IT WILL MOVE ASHORE NEAR FORT
PIERCE-VERO BEACH TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 12Z AND MOVE INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.

BESIDES FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS...ENOUGH
HELICITY IS PROBABLY AVAILABLE TO CAUSE FUNNEL CLOUDS TOMORROW
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
SEABREEZE AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN BEST THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER WESTERN MIAMI-DADE AT THE MOMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EVER SO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE EVERGLADES OF DADE AND MONROE COUNTIES
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT.

SHOULD SEE BEGINNING OF INCREASINGLY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AS A CHUNK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE FORMERLY KNOWN AS IVAN REACHES FLORIDA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS LARGE AREA OF STRATO-CU SURGING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE
LAST 2 DAYS WORTH OF GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWED THIS
FEATURE ARRIVING IN SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY. LATEST INCARNATION
INCLUDES WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA TOMORROW. DECIDED TO INCREASE
POPS TO 40 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE EAST COAST TOMORROW (EMPHASIZING
BEST CHANCES AT THE COAST AND NEARER TO PALM BEACH).

AFTER THAT THE NORTHEAST WIND REGIME SETTLES IN FOR THE LONG
HAUL...WHICH WILL BE MORE OF A MARINE/BEACH ISSUE (SEE BELOW).
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