leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 20 2004 11:35 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Good to see the site back up, I'll post some of the thoughts I had over the day...

First, one thing that's been consistent across models, from Ivan onward, is the general overestimation of the canadian ridge's effect on the storms. Ivan was supposed to be bumped back completely, yet it drove right past (only losing a small chunk of storm activity we saw in the peninsula today). This same system was supposed to drive Jeanne west, then to only hold it stationary, and now to loop it around. Based on the complete lack of a strong effect on Ivan, I'm really starting to think Jeanne is not going to slow down or loop, but rather zip NE, in close proximity to Karl.

That said, maybe it's time for a poll... how many hours/days until we see some Fujiwhara action? With Jeanne and Karl edging towards each other, Lisa close behind Karl, and the wave behind Lisa being quickly developed in a few models, it seems to me like it's just a matter of time before we get to marvel at these storms mixing with each other.

Should be a fun, hopefully harmless week of hurricane watching



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center