leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:35 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Good to see the site back up, I'll post some of the thoughts I had over the day...

First, one thing that's been consistent across models, from Ivan onward, is the general overestimation of the canadian ridge's effect on the storms. Ivan was supposed to be bumped back completely, yet it drove right past (only losing a small chunk of storm activity we saw in the peninsula today). This same system was supposed to drive Jeanne west, then to only hold it stationary, and now to loop it around. Based on the complete lack of a strong effect on Ivan, I'm really starting to think Jeanne is not going to slow down or loop, but rather zip NE, in close proximity to Karl.

That said, maybe it's time for a poll... how many hours/days until we see some Fujiwhara action? With Jeanne and Karl edging towards each other, Lisa close behind Karl, and the wave behind Lisa being quickly developed in a few models, it seems to me like it's just a matter of time before we get to marvel at these storms mixing with each other.

Should be a fun, hopefully harmless week of hurricane watching



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