Glad site is back up. OZ models coming in,,,, first couple models showing now a turn to the W and hitting or brushing Freeport Bahama and threatning Florida and the SE coast. GFS is still the outliner but does not take her out till after 96 hours,,,meantime it has her wander around 68-70W. I have not seen the UKMET yet and that was the model that kept her moving back to the west the most.
Son of Ivan remenents will continue to the western gulf over the next 3days. Trough should bypass the system to the north and might push it down to the Bay of Campeache but that is 5 days out as it could just as well move into Mexico or Texas. If it does move south it will be in a good area to develop during the upcoming weekend. Karl will pull just a tad more NW and be closer to 54W and head N and increase speed feeling the trough,,,,Lisa I wont comment on yet, but I highly doubt she will have any affect on the US. Right now from Sept 20th on.. anything that is north of 18N and east of 65W and moving more then wnw will be picked up by the westerlys that generally move down more often to near 20-25N. A system would generally have to be under 15N and be moving W towards the western carribean to be in a good position to come NW and threaten the eastern gulf.