lot going on still.. this could run on forever.
jeanne is the top priority right now. it's beginning the anticyclonic loop that has been appearing in the forecast and on various model runs for the past few days.. and should accelerate westward over the next couple of days back towards the northern bahamas. the globals (gfs in particular) that were dead set on either stalling it or taking it east, as scottsvb mentioned, are now seeing the writing on the wall. that excerpt from bastardi linked earlier in the thread has an excellent discussion on just this topic.
i've got a mind that jeanne will get bypassed by another shortwave and come in sheared and weak early next week somewhere in the carolinas. the euro solution is the one i give the most credit right now. it may peak at cat 3 east of the bahamas, but upper westerlies too prominent in the globals for jeanne to come through strong.
ivan remnants sputtering and very weak.. traversing the gulf. it should work its way w to wnw and reach texas friday or saturday. bastardi thinks it redevelops.. i'm not so sure, but wouldn't be surprised.
karl going up and out. like a good hurricane. its wake shouldn't capture lisa, though it ought to keep the system slow-moving. the official keeps showing it turning nw late in the forecast period.. don't think that feature will turn it.. too much uncertainty with it's upcoming interaction with the disturbance trailing it. that disturbance should be a depression now (d2.0), but nhc has gone back to its usual ultra-conservative approach to distant systems. i have a feeling that it and lisa are about to duel. the following wave has model support for development as well.. given the recent trends i'd say there could be another active cyclone in the cape verde region in the next few days.. though we're close to the closure of that region of the basin.
earlier there was lots of talk about name retirement and lineage (with ivan). charley, frances, ivan, and now jeanne are potential retirees. if jeanne later hits the united states its chances will further rise. frances has mediocre chances, notwithstanding the rumors of france requesting its removal. charley and ivan are slam-dunk retirees.. too much death and destruction to re-use them. for a single season there have been more than the usual retirement or two.. but then there have been lots of landfalling systems.
as far as the gulf system keeping the name ivan.. i'd vote for it personally (it's been a trackable vortmax on a trough since decoupling from the transitioning surface system over virginia on saturday).. and nhc has mentioned it's descendance from ivan in it's two's and discussions.. suffice to say they see the relationship. it could realistically go either way... but would create questions when this seasons record goes to climatology.. was it one system or two?
well, ya'll have a good night. time to get some lunch/dinner.
HF 2333z21september