no big surprise here... system getting blasted by strong SW shear from the ULL off in the BOC.... and if you look really long and hard enough on the IR loops you can see the weak LLC in the SE GOM.... estimated location of the center is ~25.2 and 84.2, will say this, shear not all that bad in the northern GOM at the moment... it might have a chance to develop to TS level if it can get some northerly component to it... and it looks like its moving around 315 degrees as best I can tell from the limited loops I've been watching... two tropical models run earlier on the day on this system brought it close to NO, one over to the panhandle, and one just kinda had it doing circles off the mouth of the MS river.... SHIPs had it max at 37K....

maybe a Bear watch will be posted tomorrow evening for the LA coast....
bares watching,...
barely...