I think the models will continue more west but not much, thing is still will it make it too the gulf??? I think it will affect florida with TS winds at the least, if not its a bust forecast but Im not 100% sure if it will get to 81W and south of 29N. Anyways my forecast has it coming to florida still over the last many days. Just was delayed a couple days due to Hispaniola interaction and shear (though if you look back on my posts when Jeanne even formed I said this would happen) though more then I thought. Anyways everyone is saying Betsy or another storm,.,,,,but really folks I posted a week ago or so,,,,Andrew anyone??? Im sure the regulars on here remember that post and this is where roughly he went N to this location alot people said he would go out to sea but they feared the ridge building into the western atlantic,,,,he turned south for a day then w and even wsw thru Homestead. Now will this get as strong as Andrew?,,,,NO. Reason really wont be too much the shear but the dry air should keep this around 105-120mph. I expect strengthning up to a Cat 3 just prior to landfall as she will encounter warm ssts near the cape with the gulf stream. I think the ridge will hold her on a w course alittle longer cause it will be alittle stronger then forecasted and also resulting in a weakning trough running into the ridge. Jeanne will find a weakness though over the weekend and get pulled up but it might get stuck while the weak trough exits and a reinforcing ridge developing over the great lakes moves easterward to build back over the region. All this now is past 5 days so I wont say this will happen but its there. Anyways currently she has begun her wobbles to the sw and will get close to 25.5N and then head west. Hurricane watches for the central and northern bahamas will be issued by tomorrow morning but maybe as early as 11pm tonight.,,,(40%) on tonight.
With the rest of the Atlantic,, Karl will move N or then NNW then go back N and NE,,, never getting past 52w. Lisa will also stay way east of the Lesser Antillies and might not get past 55W. System behind that might get closer to 20N and 60 W by the weekend but anything now moving WNW or NW east of 65W and north of 15 will have almost a 10% chance of ever making it to the U.S. They will encounter the westerlys that dive down to 20-25N more often pulling the system northward and also causeing shear ( not good for tropical development). Basically its under 15N moving thru the carribean then heading up to threaten the central or eastern gulf. Son of Ivan could still make it to a TS. Hard to tell if it will and if it will, then pull south near the Texas coast or move inland.Thing is there is a seasonal upper ridge over Mexico that might pulll it down to the bay of campeache. I do feel in about 10-14days we will find something trying to develop down there or in the sw carribean as a strong trough develops over the eastern U.S. Deep carribean moisture will combine with possible remenents of td14? or a tropical wave and start to form a depression. Not saying this will happen but the pattern recognition is there over the 10-14 day period and NO,,no models are showing this. I dont go by the models all the time cause they will change from run to run. Anyways, Illl post more later. scottsvb