Staggy
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 22 2004 08:03 PM
Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD

From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD:

SAT-NEXT WEEK...LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS JEANNE UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE FL EAST COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHWARD WITHOUT MAKING LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT (OR WEST) OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH TURN JEANNE NORTHWARD FARTHER OFFSHORE. BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT JEANNE WILL TURN TOWARD FL TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...AND CURVE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AT SOME DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. AT EXACTLY WHAT DISTANCE FROM THE FL EAST COAST WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OUR WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS ESP ALG THE COAST AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. WILL LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TEMPORARILY DISPLACED FROM THE STATE. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE ESP ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL AT LEAST DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...POPS AND DIURNAL TEMPS APPEAR TO RETURN TO MORE OF A
CLIMO REGIME.



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