...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 240/4. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...MAINLY AFTER 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR WESTWARD SHIFT. THIS IS DUE TO
THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES FORECAST TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE NOGAPS AND
THE GFDN ACTUALLY ELONGATE THE RIDGE MORE EAST-WEST THAN MOVING IT
EASTWARD. THE RESULT IS THAT JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72-96 HOURS...BEFORE IT RECURVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL
MOVES JEANNE INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SIMILAR TO THE
TRACK OF FRANCES. WHILE THE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS A POSSIBILITY...THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON JEANNE REMAINING
OFFSHORE THE U.S. COAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MORE WESTERLY FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN 60-72 HOURS....
Ridge is confusing NHC computers again !