the first ivan flick was scary enough that they decided to make a sequel.. don't worry though, sequels are rarely as impressive as the first go around.
as the title suggests, we have four named systems present and soon to be five. 93L has been evolving more slowly than i anticipated, but it is having it's way with lisa and i'm expecting it to win out. lisa may or may not dissipate.. i'd err on the side of may, based on the proximity/cyclonic envelope of the two systems. 93L has likely been a depression for 24-36hr now, but nhc is still hesitant to officially recognize the system.. it's intertwined fate with lisa has yet to come clear.
so anyhow, karl is fishspinning like a champ, lisa is meandering due to weak ridging and doing the fujiwhara waltz, 93L is developing, ivan is taking aim on the north texas coast, and... then there's jeanne.
modeling with jeanne keeps trending west, west, more west. the consensus is now almost evenly split on whether to move the storm ashore on the florida east coast.. and almost all modeling has it sideswiping far enough west to get the carolinas. centered around monday somebody in the southeast will probably take it in the teeth from jeanne. if it gets florida we're looking at 2/3, further north 1/2. there is a chance that it rakes the entire east coast next week.
last note on ivan.. ssts in the north gulf probably won't support a significant system, and shear should only relax enough for ivan to baby-step back to tropical storm status.. but note the slow movement once it gets inland.. if you know anything about storms decelerating in the mid latitudes with a ridge building back to the north, you might reason that it could drift back into the gulf.. just a veiled threat, not a certainty.
another cape verde system has a shot at developing over the weekend/early next week.. but the door is about to swing shut for significant development east of 45w. with all the high amplitude features in the mid latitudes showing up in the globals over the coming week or two.. the potential for caribbean action may start to come into play. SOI is tanking, so the potential should be taken seriously.
alas, the 2004 hurricane season.. the gift that keeps on giving.
HF 2345z22september