312
URNT12 KNHC 222335
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2247Z
B. 25 DEG 49 MIN N
69 DEG 00 MIN W
C. NA
D. 70 KT
E. 358 DEG 21 NM
F. 089 DEG 81 KT
G. 358 DEG 21 NM
H. EXTRAP 966 MB
I. 14 C/ 2216 M
J. 17 C/ 2373 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 12345/NA
0. 1/ 1 NM
P. NOAA2 WXWXA JEANNE OB 01
MAX FLT WND 93 KTS W QUAD 2157Z, SLP EXTRAPOLATED FORM 7,000FT

Recon reports Jeanne is down to 25.8N, 69.0W....which is a due southward drift from the 5pm advisory. This continued southward motion is quickly throwing the forecast track out the window. The NHC projection never had Jeanne getting below 25.9N. In my opinion, every increment south of the projected path that the hurricane travels increases the likelihood of an eventual track further west.

Central pressure down another mb and flight winds of 93knots indicate she is holding her own at 100mph. It does seem that her IR presentation is a bit weaker....convection seems to have waned and the eye is growing in size.

--Lou