It's been a while since I have posted, as I have been extremely busy, but I feel like I am in the movie "Groundhog's Day". Wasn't it just a week or so ago something named Ivan was in the SAME SPOT as it is now?
Ivan does a big loop.
Jeanne is completing its loop. When was the last time 2 named systems in a row did a loop?
This year it seems like nothing can kill a storm. Ivan treks over land for days, brings down much cooler air in its wake, survives, and despite very strong shear, is now a TS again.
Jeanne died maybe twice over Hispaniola, spit out a center, looked extratropical for a bit, now, without deep convection, has a well-defined eye and is moving back towards the US.
Lisa-probably had no business surviving as long as it did considering it was a small blob of convection, and will probably be eaten by the thing behind it.
Karl-thanks for sparing us.
When that hurricane hit South America earlier this year, I had no idea that it was the start of one of the most unusual seasons I can remember.
As far as models-the GFS has switched its normal bias from the left to the right, now the 18z swings much back to the left. That may be true, but drastic changes on an off-hour run is reason normally for skepticism.
If I wanted to write a bizarre story for this season before it started, I don't think it could have been as strange as this one has.