We won't have 5 named storms in the basin.

The death knell has sounded for Lisa. It wasn't her big brother Karl that did her in, it's her kid brother TD 14/Matthew that has done it. I imagine advisories will be dropped after 11pm -- or at the latest, 5am, barring any redevelopment.

In any case, 4 is quite a feat -- and one you don't see all that often. And Ivan -- time for me to eat a bit of crow on this one. But, with an upper low to it's south, I don't think it's got too much strengthening before it makes landfall. Hopefully it'll get caught up in that broad trough in the west and never bother anyone again after this.

Karl's behaving nicely, like all storms should this time of year. And Jeanne -- she's not behaving so nicely, like every other storm this year. Models are coming into agreement on a Florida landfall again -- there's a storm that took a path like this into Florida about 20-25yr ago, but I don't recall the name -- but we'll see how long that holds. Thankfully she's more akin in areal expanse to Charley than Ivan or Frances, but it's not good news that we are even talking about another landfall. I'd love to see NHC forecast track error verification once this one's done.