Ricreig
(User)
Thu Sep 23 2004 09:40 AM
Re: Florida in the crosshairs - again!

Quote:

Last night I figured I would wake up with the track crossing Florida. Guess what? It is. Track brings it in near Vero Beach at this time. Let's see what happens today.


While I agree with your last sentence, so far there is nothing to support your first one. The current 5am forecast from the NHC shows Cocoa Beach as the landfall and an exit just S of Jax or St Augustine....that isn't a transvers across the state. Don't make this worse than it is shaping up to be. If you are referring to models, the *official* forecast specifically mention that the models are performing poorly with this storm. I will admit though that its' present path will bring hurricane force winds to your area and that is definitelly not needed in your already hard hit area. Sometimes I forget my own caveat that landfall is not a point, but an area. Also, I can't deny the possibility that transversal could occur if the turn to the NW doesnt occur as predicted. Let's hope that possibility doesn't happen either because that would put Tampa and points in between at risk also.

That said, I can't think of much worse of a forecast for East and North Central Florida residents for this Saturday evening and Sunday other than we *could* be on the NE side of a Cat-III instead of the NW side. From the North and Central coast, I can't think of a worse forecast especially on top of the already badly damaged communities on the coast, and new communities will join the list of devastated or badly damaged areas if this forecast verifies. While there is time for conditions to change that affect the forecast area, time is running out.. At the moment, the 5am forecast says the storm is moving slightly south of due west about 3mph. This allows time for it to gain strength and conditions are somewhat favorable for that to happen. However, if it goes slow enough, it also gives time for the trough expected to move in from the Western US to move East and possibly affect the storm and move it North sooner.



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