AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
258 PM CDT THU SEP 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM IVAN CENTER HEADED FOR LA COAST NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE SABINE THIS EVENING.

WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AFTER
THE HURRICANE COORDINATION CALL.

WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERAL FORECAST IN ALREADY IN PLACE. AS IVANS
REMAINS GET INLAND ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
THE UPPER JET EXTENDING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL HELP VENTILATE
THE SYSTEM AND A SPEED MAX CURVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST (ETA
SOLUTION) WILL PUT SOUTHEAST TEXAS IN A COUPLED JET SCENARIO
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY MORNING...THIS WHILE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
FROM THE YUCATAN WILL BE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS. COULD HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT CORE RAIN EVENT. UPDATED THE FLOOD WATCH WITH
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...GIVEN
THE SLOW MOVEMENT MAY GET AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES.

I guess the local mets are saying that if Ivan goes slowly to the SW and back maybe back into the gulf than he will bring so much moisture from out of the gulf that it could make a 10-15 inch or maybe even 20 inch rain total.