Ya sure you wanna go there?

Ok, seriously. Partly because it IS a gut feeling; partly based on what I'm seeing. It wobbles to the north, then back to the west, and they are expecting a more westward course later tonight or tomorrow. It's moving much faster than Frances and I think it will not make that NW turn until it's already inland. I don't buy the sharp turn to the north scenario.
Hope that helps; not an expert, just my opinion.