I have not seen the latest model runs but I'm starting to think that Jeanne will go more north than most people are predicting... Javlin might be on to something... its all about the ridge... how strong, and for how long... I posted early today for my first forecast I thought the space coast was a good as target as any, but perhaps more to the north, than to the south like Frances... as many were predicting Ivan early on to hit the Tampa, Purta Gorta area for a second major landing hurricane, this was something that was hard for me to buy into from the getgo, and it never did pan out... and it certainly is possible for Jeanne to produce another very similar track to Frances but I think the probabilities are against is somewhat.... what's the chance that the same ridge location and strength and steering currents will all set up exactly as set up for Frances.... I personally think it will be low.... and tonight I am having trouble buying that repeat event, call it a hunch, or guesscast, or whatever, but I really think the zone of probabilities will shift more to the north over time... I'm not sure if the ridge will be strong enough to shunt Jeanne south of the space coast like what occurred with Frances... at least right now that's my opinion.... I'm due for some crow eating so if it goes south of the space coast (titusville) then crow will be served buffet style at the Frank P household.... but right now.... very close or perhaps just north or so of the florida space coast titusville area