Also just to let everyone know that the 18z GFS run with the Ukmet 12z dont have the right data into it in recognizing the strength of the ridge to the NW,,, just as stewart said. So even though the GFS model shows a landfall just north of WPB and hugging the coast,,,a stronger ridge in the data should bring it onshore by at least LakeOkeb. Also dont rely on the tropical model suites,,,they are run offs of the GFS and change from run to run. So with the GFS 18z it will reflect in the current OZ runs of the bamm, bamd,Lbar. So I would just right them off.