Yeah... gutsy call by Ritchie for a Frances repeat and GOM visit.

It's all about timing now, which is the fly in the ointment. Assuming the ridge peaks and subsequently weakens as projected, the location of Jeanne in relation to that event is key to the northward turn.

Right now Jeanne is moving too slow at 6 mph. She is now moving dead west, right on track... Port St. Lucie is 580 miles away. At the current speed of 6 mph we're talking 96+ hours till landfall. The NHC predicts an increase in speed, but it's going to take a real kick in the butt (doubling her speed) to get Jeanne to make landfall in the projected timeframe of a little over 48 hours.

If she doesn't pick up speed soon, I think Jeanne will still be off the FL coast when the NHC is predicting that the ridge weakens and allows the northward turn...

AdmittedHacker