Well you see the flow in the gulf,,,,well Ivan continued more wnw then NW into the trough over the plains and its lifting out to some degree. Reinforcing pulse will dive down into the plains tomorow and will push it more to the east. I just dont see the immediate turn to the NNW. If it does skirt the coast it will be because it will turn wnw over the Bahamas and then go more NW-NNW along the coast. The models that turn it so quickly within 6hours show a strong southerly flow over florida, I dont think it will turn that sharp at first.