| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 24 2004 09:41 AM |
Re: Hurricane Watches up from Florida City to St. Augustine
|
Reading up on theat site the last two years have been weird:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_notable_tropical_cyclones#Others
One storm in April and two in December. Wonder if that'll happen this year(It already beat April with March in South America)
Quote:
Pre-season forecasts
On May 17, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters predicted a 50% probability of activity above the normal range, with 12-15 tropical storms, 6-8 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of those hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Noted hurricane expert Dr. William Gray's May 28 prediction was similar, with 14 named storms, 8 reaching hurricane strength, and 3 reaching Category 3 strength.
On August 6, Dr. Gray announced he had revised his predictions slightly downwards, citing warmer oceans, to 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 reaching category 3. Several days later, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 45% probability of above-normal activity, but the same number of storms forecast.
A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6 to 14 tropical storms, 4 to 8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1 to 3 of those reaching Category 3 strength.
Uhh..So how "wrong" have they been so far? I find it funny they downgraded the forcast before all the "fun" began.