Fri Sep 24 2004 11:38 AM
Re: for scott


Where is the strong trough that is suppose to do that? Its just that its forecasted to move around the ridge and the ridge is suppose to orient in a more NNW-SSE fashion, which i feel it will be alittle flatter cause there is no strong trough it squeeze the ridge.

I agree, scottsvb. The trough over the central US looks rather unimpressive to me. The GFDL and GFS are overdoing its influence on the ridge. Such a sharp hook to the N and NE seems implausible to me. Both these models had the same problem with Frances. I think the UKMET is producing the best track right now...very similar to Frances' track. I'm not sure that Jeanne will enter the GOM, but I do believe it will track farther west than the current NHC forecast, unfortunately for Florida.

We should not be focusing on the NHC's exact track anyway. It constantly bothers me that local TV stations place so much emphasis on this track. TWC does a much better job by not displaying the exact forecast track, but rather only "cone of error." Focusing too much on the exact forecast track has caused many people here in west-central Florida to believe that Charley was a bad forecast because of the slight NNE turn toward landfall. In reality, it was an excellent forecast by the NHC and within the typical margin of error.


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