>>> You and Phil seem good. Let me ask you a question. With that high pressure ridge, does it look like she will go west all the way towards land and not make that little curve?

It's all in the timing...depends on how fast Jeanne wants to move towards Florida before the trof comes and picks her up north...I would still stick with the NHC forecast over any others, so pay STRICT attention to what they say. And if your local NWS starts issuing warnings and evac orders...

need I say more?

The 5:00 discussion will be worth it's weight in gold...methinks.

If you're bored...go to

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

the front page lists the most recent dvorak #s for all tracked storms...they can give you a clue when a storm is in it's nascent stages if it will get a name...and for fully developed monsters whether they are getting stronger or weaker. If you want, I'll provide the links on how to read the dvorak's.

If you click on "Imagery" for the atlantic basin, you get access to all views of the tropical and subtropical atlantic from the equator and above. These are great for quick updates on model loops...they can be up to an hour old, but they are wonderful tools to see what the atmosphere is doing.