Justin in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 24 2004 06:50 PM
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up from Florida City to St. Augustine

I don't think I was clear in that last post...Max Mayfield is feeling a little concerned about this:

"ONLY THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND ETA
MODELS TAKE JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE
NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TYPE OF
TRACK THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING
BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE
NEAR THE DELMARVA SOUTHWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
BEFORE MOVING IT TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA IN 36 HOURS. THE OTHER
MODELS QUICKLY WEAKEN THE HIGH AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS
WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST JEANNE WILL MOVE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO
MAKE THE TURN NORTHWARD. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE
CENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD
AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THAT
THE NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA SOLUTION IS HANDLING THE STEERING PATTERN THE
BEST. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK."

THey are getting more data that suggests these models are on to something. The 11pm advisory will probably have this information in the modeling and I am anxious to see the 00Z model runs.