Phil,
new GFS is out, and my guess on my PM yesterday might be verifying for us. It has a major shift west, as it keeps it inland almost up the entire coast. It puts it just offshore my area, and just south of you at 84 hours, with L.I. getting strong winds, and heavy rains. For a while, I am in the right front quad. if this new shifted track is to be believed.
The reason I am inclined to believe this farther west track is, that I have been expecting the model to shift left for a few days now, and it has been doing just that.
We won't get anything near what our friends to the south do, but there is no part of the east coast that can handle these well right now. At least it will be moving at a pretty decent rate.
The H2O pic shows that ridge quite well. There is a ULL at 30N 50W that is diving down, which looks like it is helping bulge the ridge steering Jeanne more to the left.
The trof in the upper Great lakes does not look like it is breaking down the ridge as much as the models broke it down the other day. Jeanne should act to push back the front that is expected to move through our area, and for this reason, I think the GFS QPF may be a little underdone.