Such a path would not be good for my area. People will be caught off guard if Jeanne tracks farther south and brings hurricane force gusts to my county. There is ONLY a voluntary evacuation for mobile home residents in Pinellas County, even though we are under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch.

I think the NHC's 5pm track handles the influence of the trough better than the previous forecasts. Their turn to the NW and N is not as sharp as it was before.

I agree that the trough in the central US is not very impressive. I think the models have consistently overdone its influence on the ridge north of Jeanne. In fact, throughout this season, the models have consistently had a rightward bias in the storms that have affected Florida. With this said, all the trough must do is weaken the ridge enough to allow a NW to N motion. I think this will happen. The NOGAPS has by far been the best performing model up to this point with its consistently farther south track. I see no reason to disagree with it now. Jeanne may enter the GOM, but will not track any farther west than Frances, in my opinion.

I'm not a met, but that is the best I can make of the current situation.

Ronn