(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 26 2004 02:26 PM
Re: Jeanne Inland, Still Moving West to West Northwest

Thanks, I must have missed that as I just skimmed all the posts. I remember reading wxrichie had contacted Phil I think also.
I am a little surprised the winds are still as high as they are considering it has been over land for 12 hours. The outflow is still very impressive, which must be slowing the weakening, as it is still evacuating the air spiraling in to the center.
One discussion I read this morning (I think it was the QPF disc.) mentioned that the heavy rain threat was shifting to the north of the center, and in a couple of days, to the north and west of the center due to strong upslope inflow. With the frontal boundary acting as a focusing mechanism in a couple of days, this should remain a very efficient rain (flood) producer even after the winds subside.

I might add a little bit of hindcasting here. The storm moved farther west than the model guidance as a whole, as it has with the last few. The ETA is not one forecasters look at for tropical systems, as it does a poor job, so I am excluding that one. I think the monsters are the ones that give these models fits.

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