we had the main feeder band pass over last night, and have been mostly in a dry slot since mid morning with the occasional brief band sliding by. trees swaying gently, puddles on the ground.. nothing bad here. there is an active tornado warning in the county, but that's for the rural eastern part. several tornadic supercells have apparently caused some damage over in the eastern part of the state, but nothing serious has been reported thus far. it looks like we may get less rainfall than with ivan here.. can't say the same right across the river in georgia, where it's been raining nonstop all day. jeanne's little jerk to the left overnight kept the rainshield over georgia, with the main feeder bypassing during the nighttime and the dry slot knocking down the development of isolated supercells by day.. all in all not bad. wish i could share my fortune with some of you.
for the coming days, summed basin forecast:
jeanne weakens and tracks off shore near nc/va border.. uncertainty to track thereafter as it may either decouple under shear or baroclinically deepen and become extratropical. wouldn't be surprised if it managed another loop (but seriously doubt it will come back this way).
lisa working its way nnw through the open atlantic, not going to bother anyone. may interact with departing jeanne. lisa has been a useful system.. explained below.
scott hinted at the sw caribbean.. models picking up on disturbed weather there.. pattern-induced stuff. just a bogie on the long range scan at this point, as the timing and amplitude of the shortwave in the east will dictate its potency.
lisa has been effectively blunting the westward progess of atlantic waves, absorbing their energy.. and the upper trough to the east is keeping anything from developing east of 40w. from here on in anything out there will form closer to the islands.
soi positive but tilting back to negative, watch for waves to bulk up when it does. mjo status flaky.. it hasn't been the driving influence this season, but may be a minor inhibiting factor for the next week or two.
HF 1825z27september