LI Phil
Tue Sep 28 2004 09:35 PM
Re: Thomas says.....

Well, since Richie opened the can o' worms...a couple models are developing the system, quote from JB:

"I am very nervous about an Opal-esque ending to the hurricane season, and of course that would mean Opalanoia. I remarked last week how this week looked like the set up that led to Opal's development, but Opal came from the Caribbean. Well, I am concerned that we may see something like that evolving over the next 6-10 days. The southwest Caribbean is getting dirty, and I think this area will drift northwestward and gradually get better organized. The modelling is overwhelming on a westward move into the Yucatan this weekend (yes, it's starting to see it). And while there has to be some concern about it simply trying to come between the two subtropical ridges for a quicker move to the Gulf, I again am relying on the history of what I consider an analog. Let's remember that Florida was hit by four storms in 1995, three of them hurricanes. There are some similarities here to the amount of traffic we have seen. The western and central Gulf remain very warm relative to averages as well as the southwest Caribbean. Suffice to say, I am nervous about the pattern.

Also very warm is the area east of Islands, which may mean the Caribbean islands may have to look out for some renegade African wave, though it would appear that part of the season is shutting down. Lisa has two chances of making it back here, one is slim, the other none."

Right now here it's almost pitch black...not hearing any thunder, but radar is indicating some nasty stuff...pouring and windy.

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