| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 28 2004 07:25 PM |
Re: Thomas says.....
|
Quote:
No one's talking about it, but Thomas is as of noon today.
Looking at the latest visible satellite imagery we have a disturbed area of weather in the SW Caribbean Sea east of Nicaragua and Panama.
In any event a couple of days or so ago I began mentioning the probability of a Western Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico tropical cyclone threat. October-November is basically our local tropical cyclone season. Basically we get splitting and SW backing into the GOM of mid level cold core longwave troughs and associated surface cold fronts and subtropical jet stream mid level shortwave troughs. These temperate mid latitude non tropical weather systems sit out over the still very warm North America ocean waters and transform and grow into warm core tropical systems.
Bottom line we need to watch this disturbance because it will "possibly" grow into a future Tropical Cyclone Matthew and threaten all of the Gulf Coast, but particularly the mid and eastern Gulf Coast from New Orleans to Key West. To jog our memories, remember CAT 5 Opal in 1995? She was a local home grown tropical cyclone.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
Collier County Emergency Management sent this message out today:
Lisa's behaving herself, as you see from the models. I do want you to be aware that we are now in that part of the Hurricane Season that tropical cyclones now "magically appear" in the Gulf. The problem with the Gulf is that the storm WILL hit somewhere. So, be aware. No longer will you have days and days to consider your options. Keep your plans current, understanding that you'll have a compressed timeframe for making decisions and acting on them.
Not exactly what we want to hear.....