MrSpock
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 28 2004 11:08 PM
up here

The PHL discussion just mentioned that there are 60 kt. winds just above the surface that are mixing down in heavier rain showers, and without warning, since there is little lightning activity. Due to the ground truth of 6-8" rains, downed trees are an issue, and they are warning people it is a life-threatening situation. Many areas along the Del. river have sustained winds of 30 mph with gusts to over 40, and this was not really forecast. Phil, in a PM the other day I said I thought you'd get 2-5" of rain which was more than the models forecast, and that might not have been enough. Here we have near 2" with it still raining, but cooler air has drained in as it is now 66 deg.
This may have come through as a weakened system, and the threats were less, but the models did a woeful job of forecasting what happened up here today. In their defense, the range is from less than 1" along the coast, to over half a foot inland. They did mention the GFS nailed the early rains over N.E. Pa though, so I may be overstating my case a little.

There are also numerous reports of water rescues.



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