short late post. jeanne's extratropical successor is bending eastward.. it's rainshield soon to depart new jersey, while clinging to southern new england overnight as the system moves away. lisa persists as a tropical storm, though it appears likely to reach hurricane strength before getting too far north and undergoing extratropical conversion. my earlier bid that lisa would be held by the ridge failed, so shame on me for botching that idea.
eastern part of the basin essentially done as september closes and an upper trough hangs off the west african coast. development closer to the caribbean, remains possible, though modeling is losing it's urge to develop every other emerging wave... not too much more going to happen out there. globals showing various versions of a slow evolution in the western caribbean.. of one of those october hurricanes that makes florida nervous. since opal these types of system have summarily turned east over cuba, save irene in '99.. based on recent events i'd be a tad more concerned. still too far out to pick out specifics of development, or whether any system would track over central america and remain weak or not threaten areas to the north. suffice to say the area between colombia and the bay of campeche is the biggest concern in the basin from here. still a shot at potential action in the western atlantic, those homebrews that happen from cutoffs or amplified troughs that block the advance of wave energy.. nothing on the scope at this point.
basin looks to go quiet over the next few save a persistent but sputtering lisa, and a slow threat materializing in the western caribbean...
HF 0412z29september