TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED 29 SEP 2004
...DISCUSSION...
...GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM ABOUT PENSACOLA SSW TO
28N90W INTO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS IS GENERALLY A DRY
FRONT WITH ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF
92W. FRONT ISN'T EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS DUE TO A
NE-SW ORIENTED MID/UPPER RIDGE FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE
SW GULF. PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT STAGNANT WITH LITTLE CHANGE LIKELY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TSTMS KEEP FIRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ON THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF A BIG UPPER LOW S OF HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE S OF 14N W OF 79W WITH STRONG TSTMS NEAR THE COAST OF NW COLOMBIA.
DRY NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND LOTS OF MID/UPPER SUBSIDENCE. HIGH CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO TSTM BLOWOFF AND UPPER LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW S OF HISPANIOLA ADVECTING THE MOISTURE EASTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS UPPER LOW IS ALSO PRODUCING LOTS OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS PRESENT N OF 16N E OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION..WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 65W-71W. LOW WILL BE SPREADING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT INTO THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TOMORROW.

THE W CARIBBEAN MIGHT BE A PLACE TO WATCH FOR TROPICAL GENESIS WITH MODELS DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGING IN THE AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.