TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU 30 SEP 2004
...DISCUSSION...edited for length-danielw
GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 65W...
STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING OVER THE N GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. TROUGH FROM THIS FRONT REMAINS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 20N96W TO 25N91W. MID/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS FROM THE SW GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A NEARLY STATIONARY PATTERN. SUMMER SHOWERS ARE LIMITED TO FLORIDA TODAY WITH RATHER DRY SURFACE AIR OVER MOST OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 16N76W IS THE MAIN STORY WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ON THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM FROM HISPANIOLA TO S AMERICA FROM 70W-75W. LOW IS MOVING W 15 KT WITH EVIDENCE THAT TROUGHING HAS DEVELOPED AT THE SURFACE ALONG 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH FOR ANY TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT MOVING WESTWARD... LEAVING AT LEAST A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT ON ITS E SIDE WITH RIDGING FORMING IN ITS WAKE. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FAIRLY LOW WITH ARUBA REPORTING 1008 MB THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. W OF THE LOW.... GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE OCEAN. FARTHER INLAND.. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS HIGHER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A MORE TYPICAL SCATTERED TSTM DAY THERE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?