preface is.. lisa's been upgraded to hurricane. took it a week, but a nice finale.
to restate clark's take on the situation: no, there isn't much low level turning in the sw caribbean. the support mechanism is coming into play, but there isn't much there to cause backing and cyclogenesis at low levels. story changes down the road, as a break in the ridge will exist near the yucatan/in the BOC. bastardi thinks we don't get out of this situation without something forming, my take exactly. right now globals want to take anything down there out to the north and northeast late next week... it'll either be that or what larry did last october (stall, drift south). globals no longer indicating enough ridging to push the surface system into the mexican mainland, though that's fuzzy at this point.
yes, probably a matthew; no, no system today, tomorrow, and probably not even sunday.
small point of interest is the weak swirl near 10/45. it has a little puff of convection that keeps following it... i wonder...
HF 2138z01october