Looks like convection is flaring up in the GOM this morning. The latest from the Hou/Gav NWS - could be a rainmaker for us here in SouthEast Texas come Wednesday/Thursday.

000
FXUS64 KHGX 040858
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
355 AM CDT MON OCT 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...
VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. BOTH ETA/GFS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON AN MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TX TODAY...WHICH
LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN ONGOING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE DFW AREA.
LOOKS LIKE THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT OUR FAR NRN ZONES THIS AFTN.
EXPECT A SEABREEZE TO FORM NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTN AND GENERATE
SCATTERED TSRA OVER CENTRAL ZONES.

CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO SE TX
THIS EVENING. ETA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS AROUND 1.8 INCHES AND
K-INDICES IN THE MID 30S ACROSS SE TX. ALTHOUGH GFS IS LIKELY
OVERDOING PRECIP DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...EXPECT ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ALONG OUTFLOW TO KEEP TSRA GOING MAINLY NRN HALF OF THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS SHOULD
FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SE TX.
MEANWHILE...BOTH ETA/GFS SHOW NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR NE
ZONES TUE AFTN WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN LATE IN THE DAY. WILL
GO HIGHEST POPS SOUTHERN HALF TUE...LOWEST IN THE NORTHEAST. FRONT
SHOULD STALL OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES TUE NIGHT...AND TEMPORARY DRYING
SHOULD GIVE US A BREAK FROM THE PRECIP.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS WEAK UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD ENABLE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO TEXAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
GFS SHOWS PWS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY LATE WED...AND
UPWARDS OF 2.2 INCHES BY 12Z THU. ETA IS MUCH SLOWER IN BRINGING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
WEDNESDAY. WILL GO LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE THU/THU NIGHT. WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS IN THE EASTERN HALF FRIDAY. WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND INVERTED SURFACE TROF OVER SE TX..LOOKS
LIKE A POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN EVENT SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY.

INVERTED TROF/WEAK SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT/SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SE TX WILL BE SLOW TO DRY OUT WITH UPPER
LOW STILL LINGERING OVER THE STATE. WILL SHOW GRADUALLY LOWERING
POPS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S. HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS/RAIN...BUT WILL STILL FORECAST WELL ABOVE
MOS GUIDANCE.

35
&&

.MARINE...
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SE OUT OF CANADA TOWARD
THE EAST COAST WILL SET UP A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SEAS AS WELL
AS INCREASING TIDE LEVELS WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED WED-FRI.
SHOWERS & TSTMS LIKELY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL WATERS & BAYS WED
NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD. NOT A GOOD TIME TO BE ON THE WATERS AFTER
TUES. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
LBX WILL SEE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR FOG EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE. REST OF TERMINALS MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE 5-6SM
VARIETY. THE MAIN DILEMMA FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE WILL BE PRECIP
COVERAGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THE SEABREEZE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS FOR SCT TSTMS FOR IAH SOUTHWARD IN THE 20-24Z TIME PERIOD.
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD CLL...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
CURRENTLY IN THE DFW AREA ARE DEPICTED BY MAJORITY OF MODELS TO
EXPAND SOUTHWARD THRU THE DAY - POSSIBLY BY OUTFLOWS. IF HIS
OCCURS IT WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. MAY KEEP CB'S OR VCSH'S GOING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS (IAH
SOUTHWARD) INTO THE EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IF THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD PUSH. DON'T ANTICIPATE CEILINGS BEING MUCH
OF AN ISSUE TODAY...MAINLY VSBY'S IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP.
OVERALL...TOUGH FCSTS THRU WED SINCE THEY WILL HINGE ON
LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THESE WEAK UPPER IMPULSES AND/OR BOUNDARIES
THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT VERY FAR OUT IN TIME. 47

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 88 68 82 66 83 / 50 50 50 30 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 91 71 84 67 84 / 30 40 50 30 40
GALVESTON (GLS) 88 76 84 75 84 / 20 30 50 30 40
&&

$$