The area of disturbed weather in the GOM is showing signs of strengthening, some moderate to isolated strong convection. Usually the storms that form next to the Yutcatan peninusula produce massive amounts of rain e.g Allison not that much wind, though. This storm has the potential to be a gully washer as indicated by some of the well-known models, something to watch for sure. Another possible area of concern would be the behind the TUTT in the Leeward islands. The TUTT's really start to ramp up in the early fall months and provide shear... sometimes the storms pass under these TUTT's and can develop. Neverless, another area of concern down the road. The minor peak in October seems evident.