Tally ADF....

.SHORT TERM...GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN
GULF...THAT IS...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG
THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AND NE GULF OF MEXICO ON INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE ETA HAS A
DIFFERENT SOLUTION...TRACKING SLOWER AND MOVING MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND SITUATED
IN AR BY 84 HRS. HARD TO GO AGAINST GFS SOLUTION AND WILL TEND TOWARDS IT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE ACCEPTED A BLEND OF THE 06Z GFS AND THE
DGEX. THE 06Z GFS HAS THE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE DGEX TENDS TO FAVOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE
TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. CONSIDERING THE CONSISTENCY
FROM THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND AFTER CHATTING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
APPLY GREATER WEIGHT TO THE GFS. BASED ON WHAT IS SEEN IN THE MODELS...DO
NOT THINK THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM.