The Gobal's, in paticualry the GFS is overdoing the cold advection for that ridge that's going to be building in the east, not nearly that cold of weather should be excepted...Another landfalling typhoon in the West pacific, they've had prob. the worst season on record this year. It's all about the placement of the ridge se of the Japan area, and this is very similar for the U.S hurricane landfalling season; the placement of the sub-tropical ridge. Hopefully we'll get a better season next year. The disturbance in the Gulf is slowing moving, getting it's rain all together, this should be some type of hybird storm as convergence seems to be reserved for the northern to eastern portion of the storm, the rest should be a cloud swirl... tropical storm force winds should be excepted, the easterly flow will be quite strong. The east pacific is springing to life some "ghost" storms, due to the mosoon type trough existing in northern south america. Just to add on what HF (I'm like GHWBush I resate the same anwser

) said, a noreaster could present a bit of a problem in about 12 days, might trigger a presitent area of disturbed weather in the gulf of alaska. The SOI is negative as forecasted, this season is turing out to be a very similar one to 2002, this will favor more baroclinic storms as I metioned in another post. There is a wave before the leeward islands that is partially proprogating northward, that could become a strong strom, give them folks up there in the Canadian Martimes some bad weather. There seems to be a pattern existing if you look at some of the old best track charts, once you have a couple of years with bad storms in the sotheast that threat starts moving northward to the mid-atlantic and Canadian Martimes. Look at some of the charts, pretty constient. That's about it, pretty quiet around here that's the way I like it!