Part of tally AFD...

.SHORT TERM...AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING TO THE NE...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON THE WAY
FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
ETA AND GFS...WITH BOTH MODELS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF
THE GULF LOW ON THE 12 UTC RUNS. AFTER BEING VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN
E-NE MOVING SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE GFS HAS SHIFTED MUCH
MORE DRAMATICALLY THAN THE ETA...AND NOW BRINGS IT NORTHWARD THROUGH
LOUISIANNA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL EVOLVE IN A VERY
BAROCLINIC MANNER...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUB-TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WHICH THE HURRICANE CENTER WILL BE WATCHING FOR VERY
CLOSELY. SHOULD THE SYSTEM MOVE INLAND TO OUR WEST...WE WILL END UP
IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WITH
LESS OR A SHORTER PERIOD OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. THEREFORE...PLAN ON
NUDGING THE GRIDS IN THAT DIRECTION...WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOWER
POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...CURRENT THINKING IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS FOR THE
SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...WITH A SLOW
EASTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THEREFORE...UNSETTLED CONDITION MAY LAST
INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS FINAL TRACK...THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS SITUATION AS THERE IS A STRONG DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND
ETA. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CWA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK...AND IT COULD USHER IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.